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Prof
Greyling, Lorraine
Department: Economics
Research Interest(s): Macroeconomics, Macroeconometrics, Quantitative analysis and applied econometrics, Development policy, Economics history.
Biography: Professor Greyling is the Dean of Faculty of Commerce, Administration and Law and professor of Economics at the University of Zululand (UNIZULU) in South Africa. She did her PhD in Economics in 1988 on “An Inflation Model for South Africa” and has been involved with a policy document on inflation targeting or the South African Reserve Bank and Government, based on her findings. Her research activities and main publications are focused on applied economics and policy issues and she has nineteen accredited articles (national and International) with a focus on business cycle analysis, the prediction of nonlinear models, the application of CGE modeling for policy analysis and recently a number of articles on asset poverty, economic teaching pedagogy and economic history of South Africa.
She has successfully supervised twelve doctoral and about 80 Masters’ candidates, read 40 papers at international conferences and 55 papers at national conferences and is involved with research projects leading to policy recommendations. She has published five text books and is a co-author of an Economics text book prescribed for about 4500 first year Economic students. Prof Greyling was the selected Head of Department of Economics and Econometrics at UJ and was actively involved in UJ Management through several committees and decision-making forums for 37 years. She joined the University of Zululand in 2017 and was appointed as Dean in 2019. She is the chair of the Institutional Forum and is a member of Council of the University of Zululand.
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- The relationship between trade and industrial performance has received a great deal of empirical attention over the past three decades. Much of this empirical attention has however focused on productivity, employment, and output growth oblivious of profit effects – the primary motive for manufacturers. Different from this literature, this paper contributes to the existing body of knowledge by testing the hypothesis that trade affects profit efficiency of manufacturing industries through its effect on technical and allocative efficiency. Using a panel stochastic frontier model based on 28 South African manufacturing industries observed between 1970 and 2016, evidence confirms a strong positive effect of export intensity on profit efficiency that operates mainly through technical efficiency. Import penetration appears to have improved allocative efficiency without having a discernible effect on profit efficiency. The former result lends empirical support to the long-standing view that outward-oriented policies have the potential to enhance industrial profit maximization while the latter result suggests that inward-oriented polices at worst promote suboptimal input allocation.
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- This study analysed the nonlinear effects of government spending on economic growth in 10 Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries from 1994 to 2017, using BARS theory. The study employed panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model to determine the threshold at which excessive government expenditure hampers economic growth. The empirical findings show that a nonlinear effect exists between government expenditure and economic growth, where the size of government expenditure is found to be 25.40% of GDP, above which government expenditure causes a decline in economic growth in the SADC region. The findings confirm the existence of the BARS inverted U-shape. This study proposes that policymakers ought to formulate prudent fiscal policies that encourage government expenditure, which would improve growth for those countries below the estimated threshold point. Those countries approaching the threshold point need to monitor their government spending so that it does not surpass the threshold.
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- Purpose The primary purpose of the study is to analyse the asymmetric effects of public debt on economic growth, using secondary data over the period 1980–2018 in South Africa. Design/methodology/approach This study estimated a Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, using time series data to analyse the asymmetric effect of public debt on economic growth in South Africa. Findings The findings revealed a significant nonlinear relationship between public debt and economic growth in South Africa. The results showed an inverted U-Shape relationship, implying a significant positive influence of public debt on economic growth during the low-debt regime. While during a high-debt regime, public debt exerted a significant negative effect on economic growth. The study proposes that policymakers ought to consider targeting a sustainable debt threshold that would enhance efficient use of public finances consistent with long-term economic prosperity. Originality/value This paper asymmetries and threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in South Africa, through the application of dynamic nonlinear models namely, Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. Studies on the relationship under examination have predominantly been confined in advanced economies. This study provides rigorous empirical evidence from the South African perspective.
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- Purpose This study aims to interrogate dynamic asymmetric relationships between public debt and economic growth in Southern African Developing Communities (SADC), over the period 2000–2018. Design/methodology/approach The study employed a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) technique to analyse dynamic asymmetric relationships between public debt and economic growth, and the threshold effect at which public debt hampers economic growth. Findings The findings indicate that there is a significant nonlinear effect of debt on economic growth in SADC. The study discovered a debt threshold of 60% to GDP at which debt beyond this threshold deteriorates long-term growth. The low-debt regime was found to be positive and statistically significant, while the high-debt regime is detrimental for long-term growth. Fiscal policymakers ought to consider the adoption of well-coordinated debt policies that aims to strike a balance between sustainable public debt and economic growth, within a reasonable threshold target. Originality/value The study focusses on asymmetric and threshold analysis of public debt on economic growth in SADC using sophisticated panel smooth transition regression (STAR). This study provides rigorous empirical evidence within the SADC perspective in which previous studies have predominantly been confined in advanced economies.
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- This study analyses the impact of fiscal policy on the South African economy during the period 1972Q1-2020Q2. The study adopted quarterly time series data to estimate a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with the selection of hierarchical priors. The variables employed for empirical investigation included GDP, government expenditure, public debt, and gross fixed-capital formation. The results of the study show that an unexpected shock in government expenditure and public debt has a significant negative and persistent impact on economic growth in South Africa, while an unexpected shock in investment has a significant positive effect on economic growth. The findings suggest that escalating public expenditure and public debt lead to economic contraction. This implies that policy-makers ought to be cautious of excessive government expenditure and public debt to achieve fiscal consolidation. Policy-makers ought to focus on addressing structural challenges through the implementation of sound structural reform policies that aim to attract investment consistent with job creation, development and growth in South Africa’s economy.
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- This study interrogates asymmetric effect of public debt on economic growth among selected emerging and frontier SADC economies. The study estimates a smooth transition regression (STAR) to analyse asymmetric relationship between public debt and economic growth using time series data from 2000 to 2018, extracted from the World Development Indicators. The findings indicate a strong evidence of a significant asymmetric relationship between public debt and growth among emerging and frontier SADC members under consideration. The results revealed the inverted U-Shape effect of public debt on growth in South Africa. While the results for Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe indicate that there is a U-Shape relationship between public debt and economic growth. The study suggest that policymakers ought to consider curbing public debt level within a sustainable threshold target in order to reduce accompanying debt serving costs, and efficiently use public finances consistent with sustainable economic expansion.
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- In response to the “Great Recession and Global Financial Crisis”, central banks had to deploy unconventional monetary policies (UMP) in order to fight the severe impact of the crisis. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the dynamic shock of unconventional monetary policies through earning heterogeneity, income composition, and portfolio channels on income inequality in emerging economies covering the period 2000–2019, using the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model. A PVAR model was designed for this study because of its ability to address the dynamics of numerous entities considered in parallel. The findings suggest that the UMPs used by these countries’ central banks may have increased income inequality through all of the channels investigated in this study, as a shock to unconventional monetary policy results in a positive response in income inequality. Even when pre-tax income, held by the top 10%, is adopted to measure income inequality, the study yields similar results. It is evident that a central bank’s objective is and should be to fulfil its mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability, thus bringing wide economic benefits. Thus, some forms of policies are more appropriate for addressing concerns about inequality (income policy or fiscal policy) than others. However, the current study alerts the central bank to the fact that monetary policies may have a wounding impact on income inequality. Therefore, the central banks should consider the cost of monetary policies on income inequality when drafting or implementing these kinds of policies.
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- From 1990 to 2019, this study examines the nonlinear dynamic impact of financial development on income inequality in an unconventional policy regime in a panel of 21 African countries. More importantly, we use Panel Smooth Transition Regression to extend the existing debate on this subject, with roots back to the seminal work of G-J and many others, and add a twist by distinguishing between a conventional (1990–1999) and unconventional policy regime (2000–2019), as well as the threshold level at which financial development reduces inequality. Our baseline results will be supported by the Generalized Method of Moments. The PSTR model was chosen because it can account for features that dynamic panel techniques cannot, such as endogeneity, homogeneity, cross-country variability, and time instability within the model. We found evidence of a non-linear effect between the two variables, with the threshold found to be 21.90% of GDP, below which financial development reduces inequality in Africa, and this confirms the U-shape in unconventional policy regimes and the G-J in conventional policy regimes. Unconventional monetary policies were found to trigger the financial-inequality relationships. The focal policy recommendation is that the financial sector be given adequate consideration and recognition by, inter alia, implementing appropriate financial reforms, developing an adequate investment strategy, and maintaining spending on science and technology investment in African countries below the threshold. Again, when implementing unconventional monetary policies in African countries, extreme caution is required.
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- This study analyses the nonlinear dynamic impact of economic development on income inequality in a prudential policy regime in a panel of 15 emerging markets from 1985–2019. More importantly, we seek to extend the existing debate on this subject, with roots back to the seminal work by Kuznets and many others, and add a twist by introducing a distinction between a prudential regime (1985–1999) and a non-prudential regime (2000–2019), as well as the threshold level at which economic development reduces inequality, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR). The Generalized Method of Moments and fixed-effect models will be used to support our baseline results. The PSTR model was adopted due to its ability to deal with features that cannot be accounted for in dynamic panel techniques, such as endogeneity, homogeneity, cross-country variability, and time instability within the model. We found evidence of a non-linear effect between the two variables, where the threshold was found to be US$13,800, above which economic development reduces inequality in selected countries, and this further confirms the Kuznets inverted U-shape in both regimes. Macroprudential policies were found to trigger development-inequality relationships. Our evidence largely suggests that policymakers ought to formulate policies that aim to attract investment, which will then create job opportunities and foster an improvement in the stan-dard of living, and also should be abreast of the level of economic development before implementing macroprudential policies.
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- Population aging presents numerous challenges, such as a reduced fiscal balance, changes in the savings patterns of households, and higher age dependency ratios. These consequences are evident for older individuals, the government, and the economy at large. This study examined the impact of population aging on the economic growth of South Africa, studying the King Cetshwayo District Municipality specifically. A panel data set for the period 2002-2020 by Quantec Easy Data was used for the study. A FE regression model was used to examine the relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita), population aging, savings, education, and other independent variables. The findings from the panel data analysis revealed that population aging negatively affects economic growth only in the short run but not in the long run. Also, other factors like education, savings, and income affected economic growth in the King Cetshwayo District Municipality. This study recommends a transformation in the country’s savings by educating the population about the importance of savings in order to improve GDP per capita and the economic wellbeing of the people.
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